Wednesday, 28 August 2013

Assorted charts (Silver, Gold, Euro/USD)

silver......

the charts all pointed to a breakout above or below. unfortunately, we got the later.

back to basics. re. ag, looking at it in yen, the most likely currency 'to go first', we can see we had the rise into 08, the subsequent crash and rise again thereafter, which 'broke the bar' (cup & handle) and took us into relatively new territory.

The rise from the c&h was as spectacular as the fall in 08, very similar in magnitude (logarithmic). and thereafter we have had two sharp corrections. The 'bar' is now support and with another squeeze down we should hopefully get into some +ve action again.



similar to JPY, GBP ag shows that old resistance is now support. could be waiting awhile before ag breaks new resistance = some point later next year we will know either way. tho, the upside is a distinct trading range visible



YEN Gold (curve no more / log trend visible remains)


euro strength / usd weakness dead ahead?

Friday, 15 February 2013

log yen gold chart again

i like the log yen gold chart with the curve fitted, it is a simple elegant curve mapping the entire bull (with 5 contact points) to date and even after this week's shenanigans still shows plenty of capacity to survive

imo, this is the best road-map for gold i can find so far (but am willing to consider alternatives)






Sunday, 10 February 2013

silver smile Mk.2



"...re. meeting of vertices on the chart, one force will have to give way to the other. you can re-draw the egg curve to allow for some 'room' between the two lines, thereby indicating an upward 'escape route' for silver as it were. However, I purposely drew the chart so the lines met because the chances of silver navigating through 'an escape' are extremely low.."


ok, what if scenario.......

what if the vertices didn't meet after all: what if the curve is now on its way up from the baseline?






Wednesday, 16 January 2013

egg timer



......i would like to see silver break through the resistance of the 'oval' shaped depression sitting on top of it. This is an obvious force of resistance and (even using linear charts) you can see that there are two opposing forces coming up against each other, timed to conflict this summer. Whether we get that far before there is a breakout is anyone's guess, but i would wager that we see a breakout before then (think lows of last summer $26ish vs. xmas lows of $29ish)

....whilst a drop below the upward trendline resistance is of some significance (log charts show there is 'more' room for movement here) I would view an upside breakout of that oval shaped resistance as being very significant, because of its peculiar 'obvious' pattern.

....re. meeting of vertices on the chart, one force will have to give way to the other. you can re-draw the egg curve to allow for some 'room' between the two lines, thereby indicating an upward 'escape route' for silver as it were. However, I purposely drew the chart so the lines met because the chances of silver navigating through 'an escape' are extremely low..

Therefore, the chart is saying 'something' has to happen, one force will give way to the other; logic suggests that an upward move is probable because the egg curve is weakening (flattening). but, a more cautious approach would be to see this demonstrated first before buying